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Unpacking AI’s Economic Influence: Why the Impact on US GDP Might Be Smaller Than Assumed
Billions of USD poured into artificial intelligence development were widely expected to supercharge the American economy. However, the latest analyses are painting a different picture, suggesting that AI’s actual contribution to US GDP growth may have been significantly less than commonly believed.
Wall Street Reconsiders AI’s Economic Punch
For months, the prevailing narrative centered on the idea that colossal investments in artificial intelligence were the primary drivers of economic expansion in the United States. Major tech giants like Meta, Amazon, Google, and OpenAI collectively allocated billions of USD last year to advance AI models and build robust computing infrastructure. This year, expenditures are projected to be even higher, potentially reaching up to USD 700 billion, primarily for data centers.
Political figures also fueled this optimism. For instance, Donald Trump previously highlighted AI investments as a key factor making the American economy one of the most dynamic globally, arguing against fragmented state-level regulations.
Economists Question the Direct Link
Many economists initially pointed to the technology sector’s clear contribution to GDP. Some analyses even suggested that investments in data processing hardware and software accounted for a substantial portion of economic growth in specific quarters. Yet, as reported by various financial outlets, a growing number of analysts are beginning to challenge these earlier conclusions.
The Hidden Cost of AI: Import Dependency and GDP Growth
Economists at Goldman Sachs conducted a deep dive into the matter and concluded that the real impact of AI investments on US GDP growth in 2025 “could be close to zero.” They argue that previous interpretations were overly intuitive and failed to account for a crucial factor: the origin of the equipment essential for AI development.
A significant portion of advanced chips and components vital for AI infrastructure are imported into the United States from abroad. What are the implications? While American companies spend billions of USD, a considerable share of the added value benefits the economies of countries like Taiwan and South Korea. In GDP statistics, these imports effectively counterbalance a portion of domestic spending, thereby limiting the positive effect on local economic growth.
In essence, the perception of artificial intelligence as an immediate and powerful engine for the American economy is proving to be, well, considerably more complex. To put it more bluntly, the enthusiasm of investors and political declarations are colliding with the rigorous methodology of GDP calculation, which leaves little room for oversimplification.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why are analysts revising their estimates of AI’s impact on US GDP?
Initially, massive investments in AI were expected to significantly boost US GDP. However, new analyses, particularly from Goldman Sachs, suggest the actual impact might be much smaller because a significant portion of the advanced chips and components used for AI development are imported, meaning the economic value added benefits foreign economies rather than solely domestic ones.
How do imports affect the US GDP calculation related to AI investments?
When US companies spend billions on AI hardware, a large part of which is imported, this counts as an import in GDP calculations. While domestic spending contributes positively to GDP, the value of imports is subtracted. This means that while investment occurs, a portion of the economic benefit accrues to the countries producing those imported goods (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea), effectively offsetting some of the domestic growth.
What is the Goldman Sachs conclusion regarding AI’s impact on US GDP?
Goldman Sachs economists concluded that the real impact of AI investments on US GDP growth in 2025 “could be close to zero.” They highlight that earlier optimistic views often overlooked the substantial reliance on imported AI components, which diminishes the domestic economic benefit.
Source: Gizmodo, Original Research. Opening photo: Generated by Gemini
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