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The Road Ahead: Navigating the Future of the Automotive Industry
The global automotive market has seen a dramatic shift in recent years, with the rise of Chinese car manufacturers and electric vehicles (EVs). While these trends were not always clear a decade ago, they are now poised to redefine the industry for years to come. But what else does the future of mobility hold? What is the mysterious “binary power,” and how will automation impact our driving experience? We delve into these questions, drawing insights from experts with decades of experience in the field.
The End of Traditional Fuels?
Under the “Fit for 55” regulations, from January 1, 2035, new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars are slated to be banned from registration in European Union countries. This move aims to reduce the permissible CO₂ emissions for such vehicles by 100%. The reason? To cut greenhouse gas emissions across the EU by 55% before 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. It’s crucial to note, however, that while the regulation has been formally passed, its implementation still faces uncertainty.
Importantly, any potential restrictions apply only to the distribution of new gasoline, diesel, and hybrid cars. Drivers will still be able to use previously purchased vehicles on the roads and sell them on the used car market. The entire petroleum industry and fuel stations will also remain operational.
Industry forecasts suggest that even by 2040, a significant number of diesel (around 40% share) and gasoline (around 29%) cars will still be on European roads. Electric vehicles, largely new models, are expected to account for 23.5% of the total market.
Before Europe experiences a true road revolution, it will have to face a serious challenge: production issues. Already, the demand for electric vehicles exceeds manufacturers’ capacity, partly due to semiconductor shortages.
Key Trends Shaping the Automotive Industry
A leading American company specializing in 3D design software recently identified ten trends that they believe will shape the automotive sector’s future. This “automotive decalogue” includes:
Electrification of the Industry
This comes as no surprise. Global predictions (up to 45% EV share in global car sales by 2030) clearly indicate which powertrain will dominate in the coming decades.
Growing Role of Software
Cars once had a few basic systems, with additional features often costing extra. However, this trend is shifting, with even base models now offering more advanced equipment (e.g., 360-degree cameras). Moreover, most future cars are expected to be software-defined, relying on multiple layers, cloud services, and operating systems.
Development of Autonomous Technologies
This trend is particularly evident in the passenger transport sector. Each month brings more news about robotaxis already operating in cities like Austin, USA. Their development, however, depends on progress in achieving higher levels of autonomy, allowing drivers to pay less attention to the road. For more on commercial robotaxis, read about the commercial robotaxi revolution in Europe and Europe’s first commercial robotaxi service in Zagreb.
New Business Models
Currently, most individuals prefer car ownership. However, for the 18-34 age group, the situation is different, with increasing interest in subscription models (this figure reaches 67% in India and around 28% in the USA). Additionally, online vehicle sales are growing in importance (projected to increase from $326 billion in 2023 to over $754 billion by 2032).
Sustainable Development
Future cars are designed with environmental consciousness in mind. This includes advancements in battery recycling (e.g., electrolytes) and the use of bioplastics.
Increased Influence of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI will be prevalent from the design stage of new car models (automating modeling, generating 3D forms). Furthermore, smart factories will optimize production processes using AI, and popular models will feature AI-powered voice assistants in infotainment systems.
Implementation of 3D Printing
This technology will streamline the prototyping of vehicles. Automakers like Audi have already adopted it, accelerating their processes by 50%. Additionally, 3D printing can be highly useful in producing components for electric vehicles.
Integration with the Internet of Things (IoT)
This process began some time ago and already accounts for a significant portion of the global market (72% in 2024). Thanks to IoT, cars will not only update faster but also integrate with smart home systems. The potential downside? Many such options might come with an additional cost.
Improved Personalization
Configuration is a crucial step in buying a new car. Choosing aesthetic elements like headliner colors, bumper types, or window tint levels allows for better customization. In the future, technical systems, such as AI learning driver habits and adjusting settings accordingly, are also expected to become highly personalized.
Changing Legal Regulations
The rapid evolution of the automotive industry necessitates continuous updates to legislation to minimize legal loopholes. Regulations already mandate the installation of numerous safety systems in cars. We can expect that with the development of autonomous vehicles, legal frameworks will require even greater improvements.
What Does This Mean for the Average Driver? Expert Insights
An automotive industry vice president discusses the transformations in the automotive market and their consequences for the average consumer.
One challenge in the electrification process is the situation for residents of large cities, particularly those living in older apartment buildings where access to charging infrastructure is difficult. The expert believes that deep systemic solutions are necessary, such as establishing a mass network of chargers on streets and in residential parking areas, alongside financial support from local governments. “Without this, electromobility may remain primarily a solution for residents of single-family homes and new developments. Changing laws alone won’t suffice; accessibility and convenience will be key,” he adds.
Around 2040, a situation could arise where only electric vehicles have been sold for five years, yet ICE vehicles still account for approximately 70% on our roads. The expert notes that this scenario could lead to a crisis for car dealerships (a “demand gap”), partly due to the high price of new EVs. In such a situation, dealerships will need to focus more on leasing, long-term rentals, and used cars.
He explains, “This won’t be a classic ‘crash,’ but rather a painful market transformation. An evolution, not a revolution. Often, a revolution is easier. You make a change. In evolution, ‘the water rises,’ everyone waits, and then a metaphorical ‘flood’ occurs.”
New vehicles rolling off production lines increasingly feature multimedia systems that control even basic functions like air conditioning. This raises concerns that these features might soon become available exclusively via subscription models. The expert believes that while this has economic justification from manufacturers’ perspectives, in practice, it could lead to a loss of customer trust. He suggests that if subscriptions are introduced, they will likely succeed for digital services rather than fundamental comfort features.
What about vehicle autonomy? The idea of robots taking control of vehicles can raise questions, such as those related to liability in the event of a collision. According to the expert, liability will primarily rest with the manufacturer in most cases (provided the user follows instructions and warnings), and the progression to higher levels of autonomy will further distance this boundary from drivers.
The automation of journeys itself can bring many benefits, including economic ones (e.g., cheaper insurance). However, there’s a trade-off. “If statistics confirm higher safety, insurance might become cheaper in the long run—though initially, it will likely increase due to repair and technology costs. Reducing traffic jams and transport costs is possible but requires mass adoption,” he added.
The future of transport isn’t just about next-generation cars, but also those being produced today. In 2026, it’s still common to see cars on our roads that rolled off production lines two decades ago. If this trend continues, by around 2049, many vehicles from the 2020s will still be found in use.
According to the expert, this vision might only partially come true. The dependence of today’s cars on software updates, connectivity, and manufacturer support periods plays a role. “It’s possible that many current cars will ‘age’ digitally faster than mechanically, and we might readily embrace classic vehicles,” he explains.
“Undoubtedly the Biggest Turning Point in Automotive History”
A senior business development executive in the European automotive sector believes that the impending decision to end the sale of new internal combustion engine cars by 2030 represents “the biggest turning point in automotive history.” He also emphasizes that the problem of access to charging infrastructure is very serious, and for residents of large apartment blocks, the only alternative will be “opportunistic” charging while running errands.
The executive states that a potential shortage of chargers won’t deter consumers from new vehicles. “I don’t expect a sudden crisis in the industry, because the demand for cars, regardless of their powertrain type, stems from people’s genuine transportation needs,” he says.
He suggests that the subscription model, adopted by some manufacturers, could have positive aspects. “Imagine a situation where we buy a car that we’ll use for city driving 90% of the year, but once or twice a year we go on a longer trip for a vacation. There’s no need to immediately invest in features like adaptive cruise control or better high beams, as we won’t use them daily. However, we could subscribe to them for just a month during our vacation. That’s real savings,” he remarked.
And vehicle autonomy? “This is one of many examples where technology outpaces existing regulations. With Level 3 autonomy, the traditional division of responsibility undoubtedly ceases to be clear,” he responds. He further noted that we should closely observe the situation in the USA, where many precedents are already emerging that could set global standards.
Regarding the consequences of automation for drivers (e.g., repair costs), we might face increased expenses due to the sophistication of some sensors.
When asked whether currently produced cars will define automotive transport in about 20 years, the executive states: “I believe today’s cars will define the market in the future, but on entirely different principles than the legends from the beginning of the century. They will no longer just be machines but the last vehicles that serve as a bridge between tradition and modern solutions.”
Bold Visions for Future Transportation
Back in 2015, a cloud-based vehicle management platform ventured predictions on what motoring might look like around 2050. Their visions were inspired by the popular film Back to the Future Part II, which depicted a vision of 2015. A prominent futurist also offered an interesting opinion, suggesting that “binary power” technology will define the future of motoring.
One of the incredible visions mentioned above is the advent of flying cars. Just over a decade ago, the platform predicted that we might see the first commercially available models by 2030 (we are still waiting). However, for this to happen, several conditions must be met, including automated navigation, vertical takeoff capability, and special safety systems.
The aforementioned binary power will also play a significant role. The concept involves two harmless energy streams intersecting separately to produce an intense power source. This technology aims to reduce vehicle weight, manufacturing complexity, and overall production costs. Interestingly, the platform also forecasts that by 2050, the average car will weigh around one hundred kilograms (currently, the average is about 1500 kg). Binary energy is envisioned to replace electric propulsion, which is currently the most probable type of power for passenger cars.
How will future cars be produced? The president of an automotive parts manufacturers and distributors association elaborates. The future of the world is shaped by AI, and this revolution will not bypass the automotive industry. With the development of increasingly sophisticated assistants, we might wonder to what extent artificial intelligence will take control of driving. The president admits that we should not expect an “autonomous revolution” in the coming years.
“The key, however, is that despite increasing autonomy, even in systems described as ‘self-driving,’ responsibility still rests with the human. In practice, this means AI will be an increasingly better partner for the driver, but not an ‘entity’ that takes complete control without supervision,” he states.
A crucial aspect of AI’s synergy with modern cars involves autonomous systems’ decisions in crisis situations, requiring a choice of the so-called “lesser evil.” Can we expect artificial intelligence to strive to protect human life? The expert explains, “The creators of autonomous systems, both in automotive companies and regulatory institutions, are not trying to ‘teach a car morality’ in the sense of making conscious choices between victims.” In other words, the system is designed to do everything possible to prevent a situation resembling the “trolley problem” from occurring. However, if an unavoidable event happens, algorithms are designed to minimize damage, but without “deciding” whose life is more valuable.
The way vehicles are produced has also changed over the years. Popular manufacturers, such as Peugeot, already use 3D printing in planning the construction of some components. The ubiquity of this technology leads us to wonder if we might soon be able to create necessary parts at home. Our interviewee emphasizes that this vision is unlikely to be fully realized.
“The vision of mass ‘home printing of parts’ faces significant barriers: technological (many components are complex), material strength requirements, safety certification, and legal responsibility,” the expert admits.
Can we expect flying cars? The president of the association believes that the first results might be seen relatively soon. “The first commercial implementations, in a limited form, for example, as air taxis, are realistic within the next decade or so. However, the mass use of such solutions in daily urban traffic faces enormous challenges: regulatory, infrastructural, cost-related, and those concerning safety and its control. Therefore, a gradual development of niche applications is more probable than a rapid revolution resembling science fiction movie visions,” he adds.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
It won’t directly affect current owners. They can continue to drive and sell their existing ICE vehicles. The ban applies to the registration of *new* ICE cars from 2035 in the EU, aiming to reduce CO2 emissions for new vehicles.
Binary power is a theoretical energy concept involving two harmless energy streams that combine to create an intense power source. Experts suggest it could significantly reduce vehicle weight, manufacturing complexity, and production costs, potentially replacing electric propulsion as the dominant power source in the distant future.
Experts have mixed views. While manufacturers see economic benefits, there’s concern about customer trust if basic features are paywalled. However, subscription models for temporary access to advanced features (e.g., adaptive cruise control for a vacation) could offer cost savings and flexibility for consumers, allowing them to pay only when needed.
In most cases, liability is expected to primarily rest with the manufacturer, provided the user has followed all instructions and warnings. As autonomy levels increase, the legal framework will evolve to define responsibility, likely shifting it further away from the human driver in increasingly automated scenarios.
Source: Original article content.
Opening photo: Gemini
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